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Data analysis firm CoreLogic says that for every two homebuyers who moved to California from 2000 through 2015, five others sold their homes, packed up and moved out

Californians fleeing state’s high cost of housing

Nov. 14, 2016

California’s warm weather, sunny beaches and world-class schools have lured people to the Golden State for decades, but rising home prices are turning that equation around.

Data analysis firm CoreLogic says that for every two homebuyers who moved to California from 2000 through 2015, five others sold their homes, packed up and moved out.

Arizona and Texas were the top destinations for people moving out of California, CoreLogic reported. Only New Jersey had a higher ratio of fleeing homeowners during that period.

“California had the largest number of out-migrants in 2015,” CoreLogic Senior Economist Kristine Yao said in a blog post published Thursday.

The trend of out-migration was also noted in a separte trio of reports released earlier this year by Beacon Economics. Beacon noted that 625,000 more U.S. residents left California between 2007 and 2014 than moved into the state. The vast majority ended up in Texas, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Washington.

The search for more affordable housing is sending low- and middle-income workers out of the state, while higher-wage workers continue to move in, which argues against the theory that high taxes are driving people away.

“California has an employment boom with a housing problem,” said Beacon founding partner Christopher Thornberg. “The state continues to offer great employment opportunities for all kinds of workers, but housing affordability and supply represent a significant problem.”

Home prices and rents have been rising steadily for more than four years.

CoreLogic figures show Orange County’s median home price was up 42 percent in the four years ending in September. Prices were up 55 percent in Los Angeles County, 57 percent in Riverside County and 75 percent in San Bernardino County.

Although home sellers leaving California last year paid, on average, 36 percent less for their new homes out of state, they tended to end up in better neighborhoods, CoreLogic reported. Their purchase prices ranked in the 77th percentile for their new metro areas, while their sale prices ranked in the 62 percentile back home.

“Of the homeowners moving out of state, more of them sold in high appreciation, high cost areas and bought in lower appreciation, more affordable areas,” Yao wrote.

California home prices have risen in part because of a lack of inventory.

From 2005 to 2015, permits were filed for only 21.5 housing units per every 100 new residents in the state. That put the Golden State second to last behind Alaska, where only 16.2 housing permits were filed for every 100 new residents.

On the flip side, Michigan saw 166 permits filed for every 100 new residents.

Register staff writer Jeff Collins contributed to this report.

https://www.ocregister.com/articles/home-735151-prices-state.html

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Tustin officer gave man less than a second to raise his hands before fatally shooting him, court says in ruling – Officer Osvaldo Villarreal couldn’t reasonably have feared for his safety when he shot 31-year-old Benny Herrera

Tustin, California

Tustin officer gave man less than a second to raise his hands before fatally shooting him, court says in ruling

A Southern California police officer gave a man less than a second to raise his hands before opening fire and killing him, a federal appeals court noted Friday in rejecting the officer’s request to dismiss a wrongful death lawsuit against him.

The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco said Tustin Police Officer Osvaldo Villarreal couldn’t reasonably have feared for his safety when he shot 31-year-old Benny Herrera after responding to a domestic dispute call in December 2011.

That determination ran counter to the Orange County district attorney’s office, which said in 2013 that the shooting was reasonable and justified because Villarreal fired after Herrera ignored orders to show his hands.

A video captured by a police dashboard camera shows otherwise, according to the 9th Circuit judges who cited the footage.

“Less than a second elapsed between Villarreal commanding Herrera to take his hand from his pocket and Villarreal shooting him,” the court wrote. “Just as Herrera’s hand came out of his pocket, Villarreal fired two shots in rapid succession … The command and the shots were almost simultaneous.”

The video has not been made public and is under a court seal.

The seven-page review of the case by Orange County prosecutors does not mention the existence of a video and appears to rely heavily on Villarreal’s own statements.

Sonia Balleste, the senior deputy district attorney who wrote the review, said Friday that she didn’t immediately recall the case or why the review didn’t mention the video but that she was sure she “looked at all the evidence that was available.”

“As a general practice it wasn’t my custom and habit to write down everything I looked at,” she said, adding that her office has since changed how such reviews are written to include more information.

Attorneys for Herrera’s parents and four children, all under 7 years old, filed a civil lawsuit against Villarreal and Tustin in 2012. Friday’s ruling allows that lawsuit to move forward to trial and upholds a lower court’s order declining to toss it out.

Tustin City Atty. David Kendig, speaking on behalf of Villarreal and the city, noted that the 9th Circuit was looking at the case in the light most favorable to Herrera’s family.

He said the city provided the district attorney’s office with video of the shooting but didn’t know why it didn’t make it into their review of the case.

Dale Galipo, who represents Herrera’s family, criticized the district attorney’s review as a “farce.”

“Are they not getting all the information from the agency? Did they not get the video, or are they just ignoring facts that support that the shooting was excessive?” Galipo said. “The whole process is flawed. It really is a joke.”

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-tustin-shooting-20160917-snap-story.html

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JPMorgan: The odds of a recession starting in 12 months has hit a high On the heels of the disappointing jobs report, the risk of a recession within the next 12 months hits a new high

The probability of a recession occuring within the next 12 months has never been higher during the current economic recovery. This is according to the economists at JPMorgan.

“Our preferred macroeconomic indicator of the probability that a recession begins within 12 months has moved up from 30% on May 5 to 34% last week to 36% today,” JPMorgan’s Jesse Edgerton wrote. “This marks the second consecutive week that the tracker has reached a new high for the expansion.”

JPMorgan’s proprietary model considers the levels of several economic indicators, including consumer sentiment, manufacturing sentiment, building permits, auto sales, and unemployment.

This comes on the heels of Friday’s disappointing May jobs report. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US companies added just 38,000 nonfarm payrolls during the month. Economists were expecting 160,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in May from 5.0% in April, but this was largely a function of 458,000 workers dropping out of the labor force.

JPMorgan notes that nonfarm payrolls is actually not part of the model. But the unemployment rate is. Interestingly, a low unemployment rate can be considered an ominous sign.

“The unemployment rate enters the model in two ways,” Edgerton explained. “As a near-term indicator, we watch for increases in the unemployment rate that occur near the beginning of recessions. So this morning’s move down in the unemployment rate lowered the recession probability in our near-term model. But we also find the level of the unemployment rate to be one of the most useful indicators of medium-term recession risk. So the move down in unemployment raises the model’s view of the risk of economic overheating in the medium run and raises the ‘background risk’ of recession.”

Indeed, recessions begin when things are very good. It’s only when reports come in that the data has turned that we realize we’ve been in a recession.

Even Warren Buffett will tell you that a recession will inevitably come. For him, that won’t be for a while.

But if it turns out that the recent slew of disapppointing data becomes a trend, the bulls may be forced to change their tune.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-recession-risk-new-high-160251309.html

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