O.C. Watchdog: The Voter Empowerment Initiative would require voter approval for guaranteed pensions for new public workers, as well as voter approval for pension increases for current workers

O.C. Watchdog: Even though public workers paying more into their pensions, shortfall still growing

Public workers are kicking in more to fund their retirements, helping to stabilize the burden borne by California’s cities.

The gaping hole at the bottom of California’s public pension funds grew monstrously nonetheless.

New figures from the state controller show glimmers of light escaping from an otherwise oppressively dark cloud. California’s 470-plus cities spent just a half-percent more on retirement costs in 2014 than they did in 2011, almost entirely because cities drastically reduced what they paid to pick up their employees’ required share of pension costs.

That’s the fruit of union contracts where workers agreed to shoulder more of the load.

“No one cares more about the sustainability of retirement funds than the state’s teachers, firefighters and other public workers,” said Steven Maviglio, spokesman for Californians for Retirement Security, a coalition of public employee unions. “They are paying more for benefits than ever, while seeing them scaled back.”

But, despite such efforts, the gap between what public agencies have promised to pay workers upon retirement, and what we actually have, continued to grow.

The hole is called “unfunded liabilities” in accountant-speak. And the total for all of California’s public pension systems skyrocketed 3,710 percent in just a dozen years – from $6.3 billion in 2003 to $241.4 billion in 2014, according to the latest figures from the state controller.

The hole grew nearly 22 percent between 2013 and 2014 alone.

“What a record!” said Chuck Reed, Democrat and former mayor of San Jose, who is aiming a pension reform initiative at the 2016 ballot.

Reformers argue that this hole matters to all Californians, because if it isn’t filled up with meatier investment earnings and heftier contributions from public workers and employers alike, taxpayers will have to fill it directly.

Why? Because in California, the promises made to public workers on Day One of their employment can never, ever be broken – at least, not outside of federal bankruptcy court. And even in court, officials from Vallejo and Stockton and San Bernardino did not ask to scale back these burdens, fearing they’d have trouble attracting and retaining workers.

PERSPECTIVE?

Public labor unions bemoan the “pension bogeyman,” and argue that unfunded liabilities can be misleading.

Those are not hard-and-fast numbers reflecting fixed debt, Maviglio has said. They change, depending on many moving parts and assumptions, including how long people are expected to live and projected annual returns on investments.

When the market booms, returns are great and liabilities get smaller. When the market tanks, returns shrink and liabilities grow.

“Cropping the picture for one or even three years always is dangerous,” Maviglio said. “As any financial advisor will tell you, you need to look at the big picture. And if you do that, returns and expenses are relatively stable.”

California’s pension systems are, indeed, starting to factor for longer lives and less-stellar investment returns: Public agencies – and workers – are paying 30 to 50 percent more a year into the pension kitty now than they were just a few years ago, and will keep paying at this rate for years to come.

The numbers will be subtracted from public agencies’ balance sheets beginning next year. Some city officials in particular are bracing for this, as it could make a few municipalities appear insolvent. That is, their total liabilities will exceed their total assets, at least on paper.

The expected shock of this exercise might work to the pension reformers’ end.

BALLOT FIX?

A pair of initiatives by Reed and former San Diego councilman Carl DeMaio, aiming for the November 2016 ballot, try to address the problems.

The Voter Empowerment Initiative would require voter approval for guaranteed pensions for new public workers, as well as voter approval for pension increases for current workers.

The Government Pension Cap Act would limit public agency contributions to new workers’ retirement accounts to 11 percent of base compensation, up to 13 percent for public safety workers. Many agencies now pay about 20 percent for regular workers, and more than 50 percent for public safety workers.

Reed and DeMaio say local governments need more tools to help rein in unsustainable pension costs that siphon dollars away from services for regular citizens. Opponents say they would gut public pensions and eliminate guaranteed retirements across the board.

Reformers keep playing an initiative cat-and-mouse game with the Attorney General, who keeps giving the measures titles and summaries that they consider the kiss of death. They only plan to put one initiative on the ballot. Supporters have six months to submit signatures to qualify for November’s ballot.

In a survey released in September, the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that the majority of voters favor changing the pension system for new public workers – 72 percent of likely voters said the amount of money spent on public pensions is a problem, and 70 percent said voters should have a hand in pension decisions at the ballot box.

But pollster and political consultant David Binder Research found that support for the two initiatives was far lower, around 42 percent. Binder surveyed likely voters, and released results last week.

Dave Low, chair of the union coalition Californians for Retirement Security, pronounced the reform initiatives “dead in the water.”

Reformers disagree.

“Of course the unions opposing pension reform will manufacture inaccurate polling numbers to distract from our momentum,” DeMaio said. “Our internal polling – and all publicly available polling by independent third parties – show California voters overwhelmingly favor pension reform.”

Workers pitch in

California’s 470-plus cities are picking up less of the workers’ share of pension costs as workers pick up more. But unfunded liabilities in California’s public pension systems continue to skyrocket.

Contact the writer: [email protected]

https://www.ocregister.com/articles/public-696676-pension-workers.html

Dick Bove: Recession Will Hit by 2018

Dick Bove: Recession Will Hit by 2018

Bank analyst Dick Bove of Rafferty Capital Markets sees economic growth, inflation and interest rates heating up and then a recession ensuing by 2018.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 8 percent in 2017, he says in a report obtained by CNBC. The 10-year Treasury yielded 2.78 percent Monday afternoon.

“In order to develop earnings models for banking companies, you must have a ‘worldview’ related to money supply, the economy, inflation and interest rates,” Bove writes.

“The view that I am using . . . implies a relatively fast growing economy, increasing rates of inflation, much higher interest rates, and a move back to recession by 2018.”

Traditionally GDP moves in synch with M2 money supply, which includes coins, currency, demand deposits (checking accounts) and time deposits (savings accounts).

But in the last few years, M2 grew more rapidly than the economy and is now expanding at a 5.4 percent rate.

“My view is that the nominal GDP is about to catch up,” Bove said. “This means a stronger economy and a surge in inflation and interest rates. For banks, this would be nirvana. It means more loans at higher rates and wider spreads.”

Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office recently revised downward its estimate of potential GDP in 2017 to $19.2 trillion from $20.7 trillion.

“The assumption has always been that the U.S. economy will gain back what was lost in a recession,” Barry Bosworth, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Bloomberg Businessweek.

“Academics are coming to the realization that this time is different and that those losses appear permanent and cannot be regained.”

https://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/Bove-recession-hit-2018/2014/03/11/id/558773/

The last frame – Tustin Lanes to close after nearly four decades

Tustin, California –

The last pin is expected to fall soon at Tustin Lanes, as the family-owned bowling alley gets ready to shut down after 38 years.

Tustin Lanes has been a long-time favorite for leagues and tournaments. Customers say that’s because the Old Irvine Boulevard property hung onto affordable prices and a neighborhood feel, even as trendy bowling centers with flashy technology and high-end cocktails popped up around it.

“Tustin Lanes is like home,” bowler Patty Wood said. “It is just so sad.”

The last day of operations will be Oct. 6, according to a worker and frequent customers.

The closure is in keeping with a national trend. There are less than half as many bowling alleys nationwide today as when league play was at its peak in the late 1970s and early 80s, according to Tom Martino, president of the Bowling Proprietor’s Association of America.

“Now you have to rely more and more on casual bowlers who come only when they want to. That puts the bowling center in a bad situation,” Martino said, with many businesses now worth less than the real estate they sit on.

Tustin Lane managers didn’t respond to multiple requests to discuss the pending closure, though a “Business Closing” banner hangs outside the 42-lane bowling alley and the website states “We are closing soon!”

Wood and her husband, Matt, have bowled in a league at Tustin Lanes just about every Monday night for the past 27 years. Their five-person team is called Aces or Better, and it includes another couple they met at the bowling alley more than 20 years ago.

“I’ve seen engagements. I’ve seen people having babies,” Wood said. “These are lifelong friendships we’ve made with some people.”

Tustin Lanes has been a family affair not only for the customers, but for the owners as well.

Jack Mann, who once owned an orthodontist practice in town, broke ground on the property at the height of the bowling craze in March 1977. Mann had quite the bowling empire, owning for some time Fountain Bowl in Fountain Valley, Regal Lanes in Orange, Kona Lanes in Costa Mesa and another bowling alley in San Dimas.

Competition got stiffer in Tustin in 2008, when Strike Orange County opened a bowling alley at The District. The center, which is now Bowlmor, includes such features as glow-in-the-dark lanes and audio-visual technology.

In 2009, Mann bowed out of the industry when he sold Tustin Lanes to his youngest son, Alex Mann, who also owns Arlington Lanes in Riverside. Within months of taking over, Alex Mann made updates to electronic scoring equipment, decor and signage at the Tustin property.

Along with its 42 bowling lanes, Tustin Lanes offers pool tables, flat-screen TVs and projectors throughout, an arcade, laser tag, two party rooms, a full bar, a snack bar and a pro-shop. Alex Mann told the Register when he took over that he was surveying customers about other possible improvements, but insisted Tustin Lanes would never convert to a trendy center like Bowlmor.

Many bowling alleys that have survived the shifting industry have removed some lanes and added other forms of entertainment such as bumper cars that generate more revenue, Martino said. Many have also embraced high-end food – a trend that’s hit shopping malls, airports and other industries, too.

While Tustin Lanes isn’t the most modern of bowling alleys, Cynthia Edes said it remains friendly and affordable.

“Where else can you take a family and have a couple sodas and maybe a pizza for the price of one ticket to Disneyland?” she said.

Edes took up bowling at Tustin Lanes nine years ago, to keep up with her then-80-year-old mother. Her mom is 89 now and can no longer bowl, but Edes discovered she liked the sport so much she joined a Thursday league.

As word began to spread about the pending closure, Edes said, “It’s really a shame. This will displace over a dozen leagues, which use the alley Monday through Sunday, affecting hundreds of leaguers, other families, church groups and kids birthday party people.”

When the current season ends for Wood’s league, she said they’ll move over to Irvine Lanes. That bowling center is more than 8 miles away, south of the 405 freeway.

Wood hopes it’s just a temporary move, though, with customers and workers holding out hope the owners will open another local bowling center down the road.

“Every year we think we’re at the bottom,” Martino said, with owners watching for a year when the industry’s steady decline will stop. “But that hasn’t been true.”

Proprietors see some glimmers of hope, he said, with a push to get bowling in the 2020 Olympics and attract more young people.

Martino’s friend recently opened a new center in Florida with “pin boys,” where staff members replace fallen pins rather than the pinsetting machines that took over more than 50 years ago.

With such nods to nostalgia, owners hope league bowling might see the same sort of revival that’s made vinyl and beards cool again.

https://www.ocregister.com/articles/bowling-681763-lanes-tustin.html

Contact the writer: 714-796-7963 or [email protected]

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