Dick Bove: Recession Will Hit by 2018

Dick Bove: Recession Will Hit by 2018

Bank analyst Dick Bove of Rafferty Capital Markets sees economic growth, inflation and interest rates heating up and then a recession ensuing by 2018.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 8 percent in 2017, he says in a report obtained by CNBC. The 10-year Treasury yielded 2.78 percent Monday afternoon.

“In order to develop earnings models for banking companies, you must have a ‘worldview’ related to money supply, the economy, inflation and interest rates,” Bove writes.

“The view that I am using . . . implies a relatively fast growing economy, increasing rates of inflation, much higher interest rates, and a move back to recession by 2018.”

Traditionally GDP moves in synch with M2 money supply, which includes coins, currency, demand deposits (checking accounts) and time deposits (savings accounts).

But in the last few years, M2 grew more rapidly than the economy and is now expanding at a 5.4 percent rate.

“My view is that the nominal GDP is about to catch up,” Bove said. “This means a stronger economy and a surge in inflation and interest rates. For banks, this would be nirvana. It means more loans at higher rates and wider spreads.”

Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office recently revised downward its estimate of potential GDP in 2017 to $19.2 trillion from $20.7 trillion.

“The assumption has always been that the U.S. economy will gain back what was lost in a recession,” Barry Bosworth, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Bloomberg Businessweek.

“Academics are coming to the realization that this time is different and that those losses appear permanent and cannot be regained.”

https://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/Bove-recession-hit-2018/2014/03/11/id/558773/

The last frame – Tustin Lanes to close after nearly four decades

Tustin, California –

The last pin is expected to fall soon at Tustin Lanes, as the family-owned bowling alley gets ready to shut down after 38 years.

Tustin Lanes has been a long-time favorite for leagues and tournaments. Customers say that’s because the Old Irvine Boulevard property hung onto affordable prices and a neighborhood feel, even as trendy bowling centers with flashy technology and high-end cocktails popped up around it.

“Tustin Lanes is like home,” bowler Patty Wood said. “It is just so sad.”

The last day of operations will be Oct. 6, according to a worker and frequent customers.

The closure is in keeping with a national trend. There are less than half as many bowling alleys nationwide today as when league play was at its peak in the late 1970s and early 80s, according to Tom Martino, president of the Bowling Proprietor’s Association of America.

“Now you have to rely more and more on casual bowlers who come only when they want to. That puts the bowling center in a bad situation,” Martino said, with many businesses now worth less than the real estate they sit on.

Tustin Lane managers didn’t respond to multiple requests to discuss the pending closure, though a “Business Closing” banner hangs outside the 42-lane bowling alley and the website states “We are closing soon!”

Wood and her husband, Matt, have bowled in a league at Tustin Lanes just about every Monday night for the past 27 years. Their five-person team is called Aces or Better, and it includes another couple they met at the bowling alley more than 20 years ago.

“I’ve seen engagements. I’ve seen people having babies,” Wood said. “These are lifelong friendships we’ve made with some people.”

Tustin Lanes has been a family affair not only for the customers, but for the owners as well.

Jack Mann, who once owned an orthodontist practice in town, broke ground on the property at the height of the bowling craze in March 1977. Mann had quite the bowling empire, owning for some time Fountain Bowl in Fountain Valley, Regal Lanes in Orange, Kona Lanes in Costa Mesa and another bowling alley in San Dimas.

Competition got stiffer in Tustin in 2008, when Strike Orange County opened a bowling alley at The District. The center, which is now Bowlmor, includes such features as glow-in-the-dark lanes and audio-visual technology.

In 2009, Mann bowed out of the industry when he sold Tustin Lanes to his youngest son, Alex Mann, who also owns Arlington Lanes in Riverside. Within months of taking over, Alex Mann made updates to electronic scoring equipment, decor and signage at the Tustin property.

Along with its 42 bowling lanes, Tustin Lanes offers pool tables, flat-screen TVs and projectors throughout, an arcade, laser tag, two party rooms, a full bar, a snack bar and a pro-shop. Alex Mann told the Register when he took over that he was surveying customers about other possible improvements, but insisted Tustin Lanes would never convert to a trendy center like Bowlmor.

Many bowling alleys that have survived the shifting industry have removed some lanes and added other forms of entertainment such as bumper cars that generate more revenue, Martino said. Many have also embraced high-end food – a trend that’s hit shopping malls, airports and other industries, too.

While Tustin Lanes isn’t the most modern of bowling alleys, Cynthia Edes said it remains friendly and affordable.

“Where else can you take a family and have a couple sodas and maybe a pizza for the price of one ticket to Disneyland?” she said.

Edes took up bowling at Tustin Lanes nine years ago, to keep up with her then-80-year-old mother. Her mom is 89 now and can no longer bowl, but Edes discovered she liked the sport so much she joined a Thursday league.

As word began to spread about the pending closure, Edes said, “It’s really a shame. This will displace over a dozen leagues, which use the alley Monday through Sunday, affecting hundreds of leaguers, other families, church groups and kids birthday party people.”

When the current season ends for Wood’s league, she said they’ll move over to Irvine Lanes. That bowling center is more than 8 miles away, south of the 405 freeway.

Wood hopes it’s just a temporary move, though, with customers and workers holding out hope the owners will open another local bowling center down the road.

“Every year we think we’re at the bottom,” Martino said, with owners watching for a year when the industry’s steady decline will stop. “But that hasn’t been true.”

Proprietors see some glimmers of hope, he said, with a push to get bowling in the 2020 Olympics and attract more young people.

Martino’s friend recently opened a new center in Florida with “pin boys,” where staff members replace fallen pins rather than the pinsetting machines that took over more than 50 years ago.

With such nods to nostalgia, owners hope league bowling might see the same sort of revival that’s made vinyl and beards cool again.

https://www.ocregister.com/articles/bowling-681763-lanes-tustin.html

Contact the writer: 714-796-7963 or [email protected]

Davese Galla-Rini says she also steers clear of the center when it’s crowded – “I avoid it “the District Tustin Legacy” like the plague during busy times”

Tustin, California –

Are these the worst places to park in Orange County?

The District Tustin Legacy

2437 Park Ave., Tustin, Ca

The howling about traffic flow and parking here started when this mega-shopping center opened in 2007. Despite valet parking, traffic monitors to help pedestrians cross District Drive at peak times and the opening of a loop behind the back of the center, complaints persist.

The mix of 75 retailers includes big-box stores, movie theaters, restaurants, a bowling alley, a pedestrian mall and a Whole Foods. Customers say they’re confused by the parking configurations, which adds to the congestion.

Rebecca Gomez, a 35-year-old office manager who lives in Santa Ana, said it once took her 15 minutes to get out of the District’s parking lot.

“I was trying to get out that exit (near) the Michaels … You can’t even pull out of the parking lot to get in line for the exit.”

Davese Galla-Rini says she also steers clear of the center when it’s crowded. “I avoid it like the plague during busy times,” says the 44-year-old mother of four who works as a labor and delivery nurse. “The design is just terrible.”

Stoffel is no fan of the setup at the Michaels/Whole Foods part of the lot, but he says, “Like many other centers, there is no shortage of parking spaces, just not enough where people want to park.”

Parking hack: Go where you don’t see oil spots.

https://www.ocregister.com/articles/places-655979-worst-county.html

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