Americans stepped back from buying new homes in January, as purchases plunged sharply in western states where prices are typically higher

New-home sales tumble in January on big decline in West

WASHINGTON – Americans stepped back from buying new homes in January, as purchases plunged sharply in western states where prices are typically higher.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that new-home sales fell 9.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 494,000. Most of the decline stemmed for a 32.1% in sales in the West. Sales also slipped in the Midwest, while edging up in the Northeast and South.

The pace of buying new homes last month slipped below last year’s sales total of 501,000, a possible sign of mounting price pressures despite low mortgage rates and job gains that have pushed the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. But new-home sales also tend to be a volatile government report with revisions and large swings on a monthly basis.

The decrease complicates the outlook for residential real estate. Rising demand for existing homes had sparked hopes that builders will ramp up construction and sales of new homes will accelerate. The 14.5% increase in new-home sales last year fed into those expectations. But builders have increasingly focused on the more affluent slivers of the market, while the decline in sales listings of existing homes indicate that many Americans may have lost interest in upgrading to a new property.

A curious price gap appears to have opened up because of these trends. The median new-home sales price fell 4.5% from a year ago to $278,800, likely because of fewer purchases in the West. But the average price — which includes the extremes of the market — has climbed 2.7% from a year ago to $365,700, a difference of nearly $100,000 compared to the median. The increase in the average price has consistently stayed ahead of wage growth, which limits affordability.

New-home sales still lag the historic 52-year average of 655,200. Subprime mortgages helped push up sales as high as 1.28 million in 2005, a peak that ultimately signaled a bubble that burst and pushed the economy into its worst downturn since the depression.

But demand for housing has recovered over the course of the 6 ½-year recovery from the recession.

Sales of existing homes rose 0.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. That increase comes on the heels of a strong 2015 when sales reached their highest level in nine years. Supply of homes has failed to increase in response to demand, causing the median sales price to rise 8.2 percent from a year ago to $213,800.

The rising prices have raised questions as to whether construction firms will build more homes to fulfill demand.

Housing starts dipped in January amid colder weather. Ground breakings fell 3.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.1 million homes, the Commerce Department said in a separate report. But for all of 2015, housing starts totaled 1.1 million, the most since 2007.

Homebuilders see room for further expansion, yet they’re slightly less hopeful.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index dropped to 58 in February, a decrease of three points from January. The index had stayed in the low 60s since June. Readings above 50 indicate more builders view sales conditions as positive.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2016/02/24/new-home-sales-housing-market/80849626/

O.C. Watchdog: The Voter Empowerment Initiative would require voter approval for guaranteed pensions for new public workers, as well as voter approval for pension increases for current workers

O.C. Watchdog: Even though public workers paying more into their pensions, shortfall still growing

Public workers are kicking in more to fund their retirements, helping to stabilize the burden borne by California’s cities.

The gaping hole at the bottom of California’s public pension funds grew monstrously nonetheless.

New figures from the state controller show glimmers of light escaping from an otherwise oppressively dark cloud. California’s 470-plus cities spent just a half-percent more on retirement costs in 2014 than they did in 2011, almost entirely because cities drastically reduced what they paid to pick up their employees’ required share of pension costs.

That’s the fruit of union contracts where workers agreed to shoulder more of the load.

“No one cares more about the sustainability of retirement funds than the state’s teachers, firefighters and other public workers,” said Steven Maviglio, spokesman for Californians for Retirement Security, a coalition of public employee unions. “They are paying more for benefits than ever, while seeing them scaled back.”

But, despite such efforts, the gap between what public agencies have promised to pay workers upon retirement, and what we actually have, continued to grow.

The hole is called “unfunded liabilities” in accountant-speak. And the total for all of California’s public pension systems skyrocketed 3,710 percent in just a dozen years – from $6.3 billion in 2003 to $241.4 billion in 2014, according to the latest figures from the state controller.

The hole grew nearly 22 percent between 2013 and 2014 alone.

“What a record!” said Chuck Reed, Democrat and former mayor of San Jose, who is aiming a pension reform initiative at the 2016 ballot.

Reformers argue that this hole matters to all Californians, because if it isn’t filled up with meatier investment earnings and heftier contributions from public workers and employers alike, taxpayers will have to fill it directly.

Why? Because in California, the promises made to public workers on Day One of their employment can never, ever be broken – at least, not outside of federal bankruptcy court. And even in court, officials from Vallejo and Stockton and San Bernardino did not ask to scale back these burdens, fearing they’d have trouble attracting and retaining workers.

PERSPECTIVE?

Public labor unions bemoan the “pension bogeyman,” and argue that unfunded liabilities can be misleading.

Those are not hard-and-fast numbers reflecting fixed debt, Maviglio has said. They change, depending on many moving parts and assumptions, including how long people are expected to live and projected annual returns on investments.

When the market booms, returns are great and liabilities get smaller. When the market tanks, returns shrink and liabilities grow.

“Cropping the picture for one or even three years always is dangerous,” Maviglio said. “As any financial advisor will tell you, you need to look at the big picture. And if you do that, returns and expenses are relatively stable.”

California’s pension systems are, indeed, starting to factor for longer lives and less-stellar investment returns: Public agencies – and workers – are paying 30 to 50 percent more a year into the pension kitty now than they were just a few years ago, and will keep paying at this rate for years to come.

The numbers will be subtracted from public agencies’ balance sheets beginning next year. Some city officials in particular are bracing for this, as it could make a few municipalities appear insolvent. That is, their total liabilities will exceed their total assets, at least on paper.

The expected shock of this exercise might work to the pension reformers’ end.

BALLOT FIX?

A pair of initiatives by Reed and former San Diego councilman Carl DeMaio, aiming for the November 2016 ballot, try to address the problems.

The Voter Empowerment Initiative would require voter approval for guaranteed pensions for new public workers, as well as voter approval for pension increases for current workers.

The Government Pension Cap Act would limit public agency contributions to new workers’ retirement accounts to 11 percent of base compensation, up to 13 percent for public safety workers. Many agencies now pay about 20 percent for regular workers, and more than 50 percent for public safety workers.

Reed and DeMaio say local governments need more tools to help rein in unsustainable pension costs that siphon dollars away from services for regular citizens. Opponents say they would gut public pensions and eliminate guaranteed retirements across the board.

Reformers keep playing an initiative cat-and-mouse game with the Attorney General, who keeps giving the measures titles and summaries that they consider the kiss of death. They only plan to put one initiative on the ballot. Supporters have six months to submit signatures to qualify for November’s ballot.

In a survey released in September, the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that the majority of voters favor changing the pension system for new public workers – 72 percent of likely voters said the amount of money spent on public pensions is a problem, and 70 percent said voters should have a hand in pension decisions at the ballot box.

But pollster and political consultant David Binder Research found that support for the two initiatives was far lower, around 42 percent. Binder surveyed likely voters, and released results last week.

Dave Low, chair of the union coalition Californians for Retirement Security, pronounced the reform initiatives “dead in the water.”

Reformers disagree.

“Of course the unions opposing pension reform will manufacture inaccurate polling numbers to distract from our momentum,” DeMaio said. “Our internal polling – and all publicly available polling by independent third parties – show California voters overwhelmingly favor pension reform.”

Workers pitch in

California’s 470-plus cities are picking up less of the workers’ share of pension costs as workers pick up more. But unfunded liabilities in California’s public pension systems continue to skyrocket.

Contact the writer: [email protected]

https://www.ocregister.com/articles/public-696676-pension-workers.html

La Palma, the county’s smallest city, hit with big cuts

La Palma, California –

When things get tough, it’s often the little guys that get hurt the worst. And after the recession, Orange County’s smallest city is in the midst of some very big belt-tightening.

Welcome to La Palma, all 1.8 square miles of it.

Since the recession, the city cut nearly 20 percent of its workforce, to 52 employees from 64.

The changes included reducing the police force to 27 from 32 over six years and more recently implementing more layoffs, combining several civilian departments and eliminating two directors. In July, the City Council created a citizens Financial Sustainability Committee to oversee operations and investigate additional efficiencies.

That’s not all. The city is considering suspending its signature event, La Palma Days, a festival the city points out is also known as the “official Veterans Day parade of Orange County.”

La Palma Days is firmly on the calendar for Nov. 14. But this year is special. The city celebrates its 60th anniversary of incorporation and its 50th anniversary of changing the town’s name from Dairyland to La Palma.

Yes, it would be a shame to suspend the event after such an auspicious year. But revenues are down; pension and other expenses are up. And in establishing the finance committee, the council warned: “The types of measures beyond those already enacted and planned may impact the character and traditions of the city.”

But don’t mistake small for weak. Fiercely independent, La Palma has plenty of pride and more than a few surprises. Money Magazine in 2011, 2013 and 2015 named the city one of the best places to live.

DIVERSITY OF CULTURES

The face of Orange County is changing quickly. Guess which O.C. city has the largest percentage of Asian residents? I would pick Garden Grove or Westminster, maybe Irvine.

Of course, the answer is … La Palma. With an Asian demographic of 48.1 percent, according to the U.S. census, La Palma noses out Westminster. While small at nearly 16,000 residents, La Palma also has the highest percentage of African Americans – 5.2 percent – of any Orange County city.

Cruising La Palma is a treat. Within a few blocks, you can find restaurants specializing in Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean cuisines.

City Manager Ellen Volmert is at the wheel as school lets out and mentions that nearly 20 percent of La Palma is Korean. She reports that city officials visit Korea and are in the early stages of developing more permanent connections.

We pass an area where new houses are proposed. Mind you, the development is nothing like what we see in Irvine, Tustin, Lake Forest or Yorba Linda, where thousands of homes are under construction. In La Palma, on what was a small strawberry farm, seven homes are expected.

Still, it’s a good sign. Register columnist Jonathan Lansner reported in July that La Palma was an especially hot housing market, with homes selling within 33.4 days. He noted low home prices likely were part of the reason; in July, La Palma had a median price of $560,000.

Volmert turns onto Dallas Drive. It looks like a typical cul de sac. But visit this area during the holiday season and be prepared for traffic jams. Christmas decorations cover lawns, holiday lights glow.

The city manager beams. It is that kind of neighborliness that makes living in the smallest city special.

BILLBOARD DOLLARS

To help increase revenue, La Palma has several projects in the works. Each is modest, the kind you’d expect from a city that was designed as a bedroom community and still prides itself for its “small-town character.”

One project involves allowing La Palma to erect several commercial billboards along the 91 freeway. Sure we’re not talking big money, but we are talking six figures. And every little bit quickly adds up.

Another project is Centerpointe, the city’s mixed commercial development north of the 91. Centerpointe dates to the early 1980s and has been updated several times.

It offers hotels, restaurants and office space including La Quinta Inn, Kaiser Permanente, A’Roma Ristorante, Samsung Chemical, CJ Foods.

FIVE SCHOOL DISTRICTS

Because of a quirk in history, there is at least one weird thing about La Palma – a city you can walk across in a half-hour. It’s served by five school districts: Anaheim Union, Centralia, Cypress, Fullerton and Buena Park.

Understand, when those districts were fashioned in the late 1800s, the area was cow country. With far more cows than kids, no one paid attention to the mishmash of school districts.

As I leave the city, I visit John F. Kennedy High. The school opened less than a year after Kennedy was assassinated and became one of the first schools named after our 35th president.

Emblazoned on one wall is Kennedy’s famous inaugural statement: “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.”

In an age of Facebook and Twitter, the quote would probably take the country by storm for 15 minutes. And then disappear. Yet it remains as vital a call as the day it was made more than a half-century ago.

It is a national call carried on the broad shoulders of one very small city.

https://www.ocregister.com/articles/city-682843-palma-one.html

Contact the writer: [email protected]

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